FX Viewpoint | USD: What if the Fed delays tapering | Article – HSBC VisionGo

USD: What if the Fed delays tapering
Finance  ·    ·  6 mins read

  • The spread of the Delta variant has challenged the US economy, fuelling the idea that the Fed may delay tapering
  • This potential delay could weigh on the USD, albeit temporary, in our view
  • We expect the USD to strengthen gradually, due to the slowdown in global growth and the Fed’s path towards normalisation

The US economy is losing some speed, so there is a possibility that the Fed could soften its message

COVID-19 in the US has been challenging lately (Chart 1), and that has been cited as a near-term downside risk by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Indeed, the US economy is losing some speed. Our US Activity Surprise Index moved lower recently (Chart 2), as a few key US economic data have surprised on the downside, such as retail sales in July and job creation in August. All this fuels the idea that the Fed may delay tapering.

A potential delay in tapering would weigh on the USD, albeit temporary, in our view

A potential delay in the slowing of the Fed’s balance sheet would test the USD, although we believe it would be temporary. Once the spread of the Delta variant shows a sign of peaking, as it has done elsewhere, then the Fed would presumably resume its path towards gradual normalisation. In other words, the Fed may have some doubts about the US economy over the near term, but it is unlikely to abandon its long-term view and plan for monetary policy normalisation.

The Fed’s tapering may not immediately trigger a stronger USD, but this should set the course for wider policy divergence to play out for FX

We acknowledge that the Fed’s tapering may not lead to an immediate reaction and impact on the USD. What may matter more is that the Fed’s tapering brings the idea of rate hike expectations forward. It should also set the course for bigger policy divergence to play out for exchange rates. 

We expect the USD to gradually strengthen over the coming quarters

All in all, the USD’s fortunes have been less straightforward compared to last year. We still believe the USD is gradually transitioning to a stronger path for two key reasons. First, global growth may be losing speed but is not seen as decelerating quickly. If we believed the latter could occur, then we would factor in a much steeper USD climb. Second, the Fed is edging closer towards eventual rate hikes, which should support the USD, especially when tapering actually starts.

Disclosure appendix

This document is for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. Information in this document is general and should not be construed as investment advice, given it has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on it, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek professional investment and tax advice.
Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. Investors should consult with their HSBC representative regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned in this document and take into account their specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase investment products. 
The value of and the income produced by the investment products mentioned in this document may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal or exceed the amount invested. Value and income from investment products may be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Past performance of a particular investment product is not indicative of future results.
HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments (including derivatives) of companies covered here on a principal or agency basis.
Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this information will be published is not determined in advance.
Additional disclosures

  1. This report is dated as at 10 September 2021.
  2. All market data included in this report are dated as at close 09 September 2021, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report.
  3. HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
  4. You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or under other financial contracts or instruments, (ii) determining the price at which a financial instrument may be bought or sold or traded or redeemed, or the value of a financial instrument, and/or (iii) measuring the performance of a financial instrument or of an investment fund.

Disclaimer

This document is prepared by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (‘HBAP’), 1 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. HBAP is incorporated in Hong Kong and is part of the HSBC Group. This document is for general circulation and information purposes only. This document is not prepared with any particular customers or purposes in mind and does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or personal circumstances or needs of any particular customer. HBAP has prepared this document based on publicly available information at the time of preparation from sources it believes to be reliable but it has not independently verified such information. The contents of this document are subject to change without notice.
This document is not investment advice or recommendation nor is it intended to sell investments or services or solicit purchases or subscriptions for them. You SHOULD NOT use or rely on this document in making any investment decision or decision to buy or sell currency. HBAP is not responsible for such use or reliance by you. You SHOULD consult your professional advisor in your jurisdiction if you have any questions regarding the contents of this document.
You SHOULD NOT reproduce or further distribute the contents of this document to any person or entity, whether in whole or in part, for any purpose. This document may not be distributed to the US, Canada or Australia or any other jurisdiction where its distribution is unlawful.
Hong Kong
In Hong Kong, this document is distributed by HBAP to its customers for general reference only. HBAP is not responsible for any loss, damage or other consequences of any kind that you may incur or suffer as a result of, arising from or relating to your use or reliance of this document. HBAP gives no guarantee, representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this document.
Miscellaneous
Notwithstanding this document is not investment advice, please be aware of the following for the sake of completeness. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. When an investment is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of an investor, changes in the exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of that investment. Where there is no recognised market for an investment, it may be difficult for an investor to sell the investment or to obtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risk associated with it.
This document contains forward-looking statements which are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Such statements are projections, do not represent any one investment and are used for illustration purpose only. Customers are reminded that there can be no assurance that economic conditions described herein will remain in the future. Actual results may differ materially from the forecasts/estimates. No assurance is given that those expectations reflected in those forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct or come to fruition, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. No obligation is undertaken to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements contained in this document or any other related document whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, its affiliates and associates and their respective officers and/or employees, may have interests in any products referred to in this document by acting in various roles including as distributor, holder of principal positions, adviser or lender. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, its affiliates and associates, and their respective officers and employees, may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities. In addition, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, its affiliates and associates, and their respective officers and/or employees, may buy or sell products as principal or agent and may effect transactions which are not consistent with the information set out in this document.
© Copyright 2021. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited.
HSBC
HSBC